Bravo, Patriots!

Shout out to Patrick Henry's boy's basketball team, back in the state semi-finals after a win over St Michael tonight for the first time since '03! The Henry website has more info on the team's accomplishments this year. This picture cracks me up because they are trying to look cool and not smile - but I bet they're smiling tonight!

Varsity players I worked with in my time at PHHS include Louis Cox, Dennis Joiner, Alonzo Melton, and Jerry Sweezy. I'm proud of you guys!!!

Go Patriots - next game is tomorrow! :)

Better Than Average!

How random is this - globally, people trend downward on the happiness scale until the age of 44, then trend upward again. (Excluding old folks with bad health problems.) The general life-pattern of happiness looks like a U-shaped curve, with the age of 44 at the bottom.

What the flip?!?!

According to a current article in Time magazine, this is exactly the case. Survey data representing 2 million people in more than 70 countries shows that: "Across the world, people in their 40s generally claim to be less happy than those who are younger or older, and the global happiness nadir appears to hit somewhere around 44."

What accounts for this? I'm at a loss, and so are the researchers. The article continues:

"It's not anxiety from the kids, for starters. Even among the childless, those in midlife reported lower life satisfaction than the young or old, says study co-author Andrew Oswald, an economics professor at the University of Warwick in Britain. Other things that didn't alter the happiness curve: income, marital status or education. "You can adjust for 100 things and it doesn't go away," Oswald says. He and co-author David Blanchflower, an economist at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire, also adjusted their results for cohort effects: their data spanned more than 30 years, making them confident that whatever makes people miserable about being middle-aged, it isn't related, say, to being born in the year 1960 and growing up with that generation's particular set of experiences."

So what are we to make of this? The article even makes the point that the findings are cross-generational, so Xers are no more or less likely to fall into this pattern than Boomers or Millenials. Hmm...

As for me - I'm having a 40th b-day party in a few weeks and counting my blessings. I don't know that I'm happier now than I was at 20 or 30 (OK, I was having a pretty darn good time at 20!) but I don't feel less happy now than I was before. Go figure!

On Race: From One More Articulate than I

No matter what the outcome of the 2008 presidential race, Barack Obama's speech on race this week will be remembered as a turning point in race relations in America. It will be read and studies in schools, and parts will be repeated and sent around the internet for years.

I don't know how he feels about that - or about me excepting some of it here - but I believe it's worth sharing just to advance the cause of unity. Here are the parts that most resonated with me:

"The fact is that the comments that have been made and the issues that have surfaced over the last few weeks reflect the complexities of race in this country that we've never really worked through - a part of our union that we have yet to perfect. And if we walk away now, if we simply retreat into our respective corners, we will never be able to come together and solve challenges like health care, or education, or the need to find good jobs for every American.

Understanding this reality requires a reminder of how we arrived at this point. As William Faulkner once wrote, "The past isn't dead and buried. In fact, it isn't even past." We do not need to recite here the history of racial injustice in this country. But we do need to remind ourselves that so many of the disparities that exist in the African-American community today can be directly traced to inequalities passed on from an earlier generation that suffered under the brutal legacy of slavery and Jim Crow.

Segregated schools were, and are, inferior schools; we still haven't fixed them, fifty years after Brown v. Board of Education, and the inferior education they provided, then and now, helps explain the pervasive achievement gap between today's black and white students.

Legalized discrimination - where blacks were prevented, often through violence, from owning property, or loans were not granted to African-American business owners, or black homeowners could not access FHA mortgages, or blacks were excluded from unions, or the police force, or fire departments - meant that black families could not amass any meaningful wealth to bequeath to future generations. That history helps explain the wealth and income gap between black and white, and the concentrated pockets of poverty that persists in so many of today's urban and rural communities.

A lack of economic opportunity among black men, and the shame and frustration that came from not being able to provide for one's family, contributed to the erosion of black families - a problem that welfare policies for many years may have worsened. And the lack of basic services in so many urban black neighborhoods - parks for kids to play in, police walking the beat, regular garbage pick-up and building code enforcement - all helped create a cycle of violence, blight and neglect that continue to haunt us….

In fact, a similar anger exists within segments of the white community. Most working- and middle-class white Americans don't feel that they have been particularly privileged by their race. Their experience is the immigrant experience - as far as they're concerned, no one's handed them anything, they've built it from scratch. They've worked hard all their lives, many times only to see their jobs shipped overseas or their pension dumped after a lifetime of labor. They are anxious about their futures, and feel their dreams slipping away; in an era of stagnant wages and global competition, opportunity comes to be seen as a zero sum game, in which your dreams come at my expense. So when they are told to bus their children to a school across town; when they hear that an African American is getting an advantage in landing a good job or a spot in a good college because of an injustice that they themselves never committed; when they're told that their fears about crime in urban neighborhoods are somehow prejudiced, resentment builds over time.

Like the anger within the black community, these resentments aren't always expressed in polite company. But they have helped shape the political landscape for at least a generation. Anger over welfare and affirmative action helped forge the Reagan Coalition. Politicians routinely exploited fears of crime for their own electoral ends. Talk show hosts and conservative commentators built entire careers unmasking bogus claims of racism while dismissing legitimate discussions of racial injustice and inequality as mere political correctness or reverse racism.

Just as black anger often proved counterproductive, so have these white resentments distracted attention from the real culprits of the middle class squeeze - a corporate culture rife with inside dealing, questionable accounting practices, and short-term greed; a Washington dominated by lobbyists and special interests; economic policies that favor the few over the many. And yet, to wish away the resentments of white Americans, to label them as misguided or even racist, without recognizing they are grounded in legitimate concerns - this too widens the racial divide, and blocks the path to understanding.

This is where we are right now. It's a racial stalemate we've been stuck in for years….

For the African-American community, that path [to a more perfect union] means embracing the burdens of our past without becoming victims of our past. It means continuing to insist on a full measure of justice in every aspect of American life. But it also means binding our particular grievances - for better health care, and better schools, and better jobs - to the larger aspirations of all Americans -- the white woman struggling to break the glass ceiling, the white man whose been laid off, the immigrant trying to feed his family. And it means taking full responsibility for own lives - by demanding more from our fathers, and spending more time with our children, and reading to them, and teaching them that while they may face challenges and discrimination in their own lives, they must never succumb to despair or cynicism; they must always believe that they can write their own destiny….

In the white community, the path to a more perfect union means acknowledging that what ails the African-American community does not just exist in the minds of black people; that the legacy of discrimination - and current incidents of discrimination, while less overt than in the past - are real and must be addressed. Not just with words, but with deeds - by investing in our schools and our communities; by enforcing our civil rights laws and ensuring fairness in our criminal justice system; by providing this generation with ladders of opportunity that were unavailable for previous generations. It requires all Americans to realize that your dreams do not have to come at the expense of my dreams; that investing in the health, welfare, and education of black and brown and white children will ultimately help all of America prosper…."

Gen X is known as the most cynical generation - one that expects little from those around us and depends mostly on our own selves. I will be curious to see how this speech is received by Gen Xers - will it inspire the some optimism and hope that it will in younger and older generations?

Trust

More thoughts from my friend Melissa and Fr. Richard Rohr:

It's Lent. There's time in the desert. There's temptation. There's deep rumination. It's a grand season to take us all through to a sweet party of miracles. (I don't really care if you are Catholic or believe in God and a Resurrection or NOT.) Love is good and here and coming through in this guy's words. Enjoy Fr. Rohr's wisdom. And try to trust that the Universe will provide for you. Daily! It is! It Does! Yes! Amen!
Peace,
Melissa

"Our Daily Bread"

When Moses prays to God, "Yahweh, feed these people," Yahweh replies, "I will feed them. I will let manna drop from heaven but they are to pick up only enough to feed themselves for one day" (Exodus 16:4). The whole message of the desert is a message of continual dependence on God, minute-by-minute learning to trust in Providence. Some of them want to store up the manna in order to have some for tomorrow. They want to plan for the future, and allay their fears. Moses says, "No! Only enough for today. Yahweh will give you your daily bread. But some kept an excess for the following day, and it bred maggots and smelt foul" (Exodus 16:20). Instead we say, "Give us this day our daily bread." How strange these words sound to a people with savings accounts, insurance policies and three-year warranties, even on their toasters!

from The Great Themes of Scripture
-Fr. Richard Rohr, OFM

I try to depend on God, but I don't really like depending on anybody! The message of learning to trust in Providence s powerful for me because it does not come naturally - it must be learned and practiced. To give my life to God is powerful, but not easy. I DO trust God to guide me correctly - and I do try hard to listen to God's guidance. But little reminders like this are welcome too. :)

Orange Dots?

As always, Melissa simply takes a walk and comes up with something profound:

I counted four marked trees. They have these florescent orange dots on them. I imagine Arch Benham would tell me that they have dutch elm disease, they need to be cut down.

What would happen if people had orange dots on them? Wouldn't it make navigation and relationships so much simpler?
"Do not get involved here. This person is sick. Will contaminate you, and destroy your forest; your root system will start to break down." (I have no idea what Dutch Elm does....maybe I should look into this...?)

I can think of a few involvements that would not have taken the path they did had an orange dot existed to warn me away! But then again - the journey is what it is... I would not be who I am today without all of those experiences, so I do not ask to trade any of them away. I don't believe in regret - just growth and, hopefully, learning from experience!

Reminder

From my friend Melissa, a recipe for peace:

Happy moments, PRAISE GOD.
Difficult moments, SEEK GOD.
Quiet moments, WORSHIP GOD.
Painful moments, TRUST GOD.
Every moment, THANK GOD.

And a quote on my wall at work that just jumped out at me today:
"I can complain because rosebushes have thorns, or I can rejoice because the thornbush has a rose..."

Amen.

Feminism for a New Generation?

A friend bought me "The Bad Girls' Weekly Engagement Calendar" by Cameron Tuttle, author of "The Bad Girls' Guide to the Open Road" and other comedy books aimed a young women. It promotes a "run your own life" lifestyle that may not be entirely realistic if you have to work for a living, but is certainly attractive on paper!

One page in the calendar really cracked me up - a comparison of "good girl" and "bad girl" behavior. A few examples:

A good girl... plays it safe.
A bad girl... plays by her own rules.

A good girl... sits back a waits.
A bad girl... gets out and dates.

A good girl... always wants to fit in.
A bad girl... always wants to sleep in.

A good girl... never questions authority.
A bad girl... never questions her gut vibe.

A good girl... would rather be liked than difficult.
A bad girl... would rather be loved and difficult.

A good girl... believes in compromising.
A bad girl... believes in living the dream.

Now which one do you want to be?

It reminds me of the Louise Thatcher Ulrich quote: "Well-behaved women rarely make history." No doubt.

No So Smart

It's interesting to ask why powerful people do stupid things. Literature from the time humans learned to write has addressed the issue - and all powerful people have at some point been exposed to the stories - and yet they continue.

In today's Strib, local lawyer David Lebedoff considers the intersection of Elliot Spitzer's smart brain and stupid behavior.

How can someone with Princeton and Harvard degrees, who made it to the position of Governor of New York, do something as singularly stupid as get caught using prostitutes?

There really are few better ways to lose average folks' respect.

I find it fascinating.

Real Books and Fake Books

I wish I could reprint the cartoon here, but technology says no such luck: check out Opus and Berkeley Breathed's take on e-books... a debate I won't even bother to enter because I'm looking at computer screens way too long every day for work... no way I want to do it for pleasure reading too!

Added bonus - Opus on nature vs video games... :)

I Will Have a Headache Soon

Oops, I didn't take the masters-level prerequisite course for the doctorate-level statistics class I am now in - but I'm hanging in there anyway! :)

A few things I am doing tonight in addition to writing here:
* Compute an estimate of the standardized effect size (Cohen's d) for the analysis and provide a full interpretation of it.

* Create a new variable that takes the natural log of [the variable from the last question]. Explain your opinion about the assumption of normality in an analysis with this new variable.

* Plan a new study on electoral voting with statistical power of .80. Use G8Power3 to find the required sample size using the estimated effect size from the analysis you just completed and a .05 type I error rate. Report both the estimate of the noncentrality parameter and the required sample size.

Wahoo!

Guys: Busted!

I have long suspected that people who dislike Hillary Clinton are really just sexist, whether they admit it to themselves or not. I never hear - from my friends or in the media - people say they dislike her policies or disagree with her on important issues. Instead, it's always something about "baggage" or "coldness" or some other nebulous quality...

In a recent commentary article for Salon.com, Edward McLelland writes about what he calls the "dude factor" in this race: guys who seriously would vote for either McCain or Obama, but not Clinton. In explaining this phenomenon, he notes that when asked what traits they want in a president, guys cite "independence, plain-spokenness, charisma, willingness to take a stand, respectability..." traits they admire in other guys.

But not in women?

They don't say that, of course. Interestingly, according to a recent CBS-NYT poll, 81% of Americans say they would vote for a woman for president, but only 56% think their neighbors would. What does that tell us? Americans are generally full of it.

The author asserts: "I told myself I wasn't dismissing Clinton because I disliked her. I was dismissing her because other people disliked her." I've heard that a lot. I think it's a crock.

He notes that there is a significant number of men who say they would vote for Obama or McCain, but not Clinton. But McCain & Obama have polar-opposite positions on a significant number of issues. As McLelland points out: "[Like Clinton,] Obama wants the government involved in healthcare. McCain thinks it should stay private. Obama wants to raise the minimum wage every year. McCain voted to abolish it. Obama wants to bring our troops back from Iraq by 2010. McCain says they may stay another 100 years. Obama is a dovish, big-government liberal who takes the kinds of positions that have earned Democrats the "Mommy Party" label. But he's not suffering for it the way Hillary Clinton is."

How do guys rationalize this disparity? Obama and McCain are "mavericks" - a great line for attracting independent voters.

But I think this is really about Hillary Clinton. In order to be a good president, she has to be tough-as-nails. In order to get all the experience necessary to be a good president, she has to develop an incredibly think skin. But men don't like women who are tough-as-nails and thick-skinned. It's a catch-22 that she simply can't win.

If she wins the primary or the general election, it will be because women have decided that it's time. We shall see.

Kudos to Rybak

Have to give the mayor credit when he deserves it! The Strib printed a preview clip today from his upcoming State of the City address:

"Stop and think about it: The only natural waterfall in the Mississippi powered first lumber mills, with logs that came down the Mississippi, then flour mills, with grain that came either down the Mississippi or in James J. Hill's trains. Innovative business leaders created these mills. In the mills were immigrants from around the globe. This became the milling capital of the world. General Mills and Pillsbury grew up out of that. That's why we have this great standard of living. That's the story.

What are we doing right now? Once again, people are coming from all over the world in an innovation economy, in a city that's inclusive, using partnerships that are not just about other parts of Minnesota, but about more of the globe. That's why our partnership, not only with immigrants, but with students, is so critical. We are doing again what we did before."

Amen, Minneapolis.

Finland - No Surprise

If teachers in Finland are paid about the same, but the profession is much more competitive, I'm curious why. And if the answer seems to be that they have much more academic freedom - fewer standardized tests, etc - I'm thinking HA, no doubt! And it does not surprise me to learn that coming from that environment, kids in Finland are significantly outscoring their American counterparts on the very standardized tests they don't value so much.

Say what?

A recent Wall Street Journal article explains that Finnish students finished first in science & near the top in math and reading because of a formula that is simple, but not easy: "Well-trained teachers and responsible children. Early on, kids do a lot without adults hovering. And teachers create lessons to fit their students. "We don't have oil or other riches. Knowledge is the thing Finnish people have," says Hannele Frantsi, a school principal."

The creators of the international test commented on Finland's success: "Finnish teachers pick books and customize lessons as they shape students to national standards. "In most countries, education feels like a car factory. In Finland, the teachers are the entrepreneurs," says Mr. Schleicher, of the Paris-based OECD, which began the international student test in 2000."

Consider where America might be right now if the Bush administration had invested all that $$ in teacher training, rather than testing...!

An interesting cultural contributor is that English TV shows have Finnish subtitles, not dubbing, so in order to enjoy their favorite shows, students must be good readers. Hmm... how can we replicate that?

Paper Rake RIP

I was disappointed to learn that the Rake Magazine - a local free paper - is abandoning print journalism for online only! Ad revenue issues, apparently. Huge bummer.

I was happy to see that my favorite Rake columnist, Colleen Kruse, seems to be continuing her Motley Kruse column online... bummer I can't read it while waiting for a friend at a bar or for my aerobics class to start anymore, but I'm glad she's still writing.

So I guess I should be happy that it is continuing online, and just get with the times and accept that print journalism has limited appeal these days? I'm not sure. I still get the paper delivered daily, and though I only have time to read it probably 3 days a week, I like it when I do.

Maybe that means I'm getting old! ;)

Gotta Give Her Credit

Hillary Clinton may be a lot of things, but you have to give her credit for being a good sport when she not only appears on Saturday Night Live, but she appears WITH the actor who plays her!

Very funny - but even better is SNL's debate skit which lampoons both Clinton and Obama, as well as the press for its treatment of them. Check it out!

Generation Gap?

So I recently told a friend who's my same age (39) that I had just been out with a guy who's 25, and she was absolutely disapproving! I don't get that.

Then - even better - she asked whatever happened to another guy I used to date, and I reminded her that guy was 50, and she said yeah, why aren't you still dating him?

Hello???

Security Theater

Bruce Schneier, a cryptographer, computer security specialist and founder & chief technology officer of BT Counterpane, was interviewed & wrote an article for the Strib about the idea of a national ID card & other dumb security ideas.

He points out several flaws with the idea of a national ID card, (none of which is the ridiculous loss of freedom that comes with requiring such a thing)
* Cost: $23 Billion
* With current technology, any card created can still be forged
* People can still get them with false names - like two of the 9-11 hijackers did with drivers licenses
* Lost cards would require another whole system to deal with
* Human beings, who check IDs, are fallible.
* Computer scientists currently do not know how to keep that huge a database secure

So what's the point of a national ID if it provides so little real security? Schneier calls it "security theater" - something that makes us feel more secure without actually makes us be more secure. He points to airport security measures as an illustration of this principle, saying there have been three legitimate security improvements since 9-11:
- reinforcing the cockpit door
- conditioning people to fight back
- sky marshals

Everything else, he says, from checking shoes to confiscating corkscrews to limiting lotions, has no point beyond making people feel better.

A national ID card? Same thing. Give me a break.